May 30, 2025 – In his latest “The Sullivan Report” analysis, Construction Economist Ed Sullivan gives the good before he gives the bad. “Only weeks ago, harsh tariff talk had some expecting an economic downturn. Since then, a guarded sense of optimism has set in. The tariffs were reduced and postponed – at least for now. Jobs grew at a solid pace in April.
“Unemployment remained steady. Surprisingly, the rate of inflation improved. Some trading partners showed a willingness to negotiate. Reflecting this spate of good news, consumer sentiment climbed and the stock market recovered. Economists have backed away from dismal talk. Things were all going to be OK.
“To top it all off, this optimism will likely be reinforced by data released in the next month or two. And perhaps the recent court ruling against the imposition of some tariffs will add to the optimism.
“Unfortunately, this may all be the calm before the storm. The prospects of tariffs will disrupt an already fragile economic growth path. Other factors will weigh against near term growth. These factors include a weakened dollar, aggressive illegal immigration control, pauses in funding on government contracts, and looming increases in federal debt.”
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