April 8, 2025 – Construction Economist Ed Sullivan is concerned the economy is headed the wrong direction. “The economy’s strength is waning,” he writes in The Sullivan Report, his latest economic assessment on Substack. “Even prior to the tariff announcements, evidence suggested that the economy was drifting to a slower growth path. Job growth, a principal source of the economy’s strength over the past few years, has slowed. During the first quarter, an average of 174,000 net new jobs were created monthly – nearly 100,000 lower from a year earlier.
“There are other data that suggest an easing in economic growth. Uncertainty is rising among consumers and businesses. Many consumers are struggling to keep up with inflation. Defaults on credit cards, student loans and mortgages are rising. This all paints a picture of a slowdown.
“Near term, tariffs hold a significant adverse impact on near-term economic growth. These policy initiatives arguably hold the potential for heightened longer-term growth. For now, let’s only focus on near-term impacts and how they relate to the prospects of an economic slowdown. While these tariffs could be negotiated down, for this analysis, the public announcements are taken at face value.”
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