The Freedonia Group predicts that consumption of asphalt products in the United States will increase 1.7% annually to 30.8 million tons in 2013. This is equivalent to 169 million barrels of primary asphalt, the vast majority of which is refined petroleum asphalt.

The expected growth represents a rebound from the 2003 to 2008 time frame, when consumption declined sharply. Demand gains will derive primarily from the recovery of new residential construction from its weak 2008 levels, benefiting both roofing and paving products. Gains will be moderated by slower-than-average growth in both residential and nonresidential improvement and repair applications and an outright decline in demand in new nonresidential building applications.

These and other trends are presented in Asphalt, a new study from The Freedonia Group, Inc., a Cleveland-based industry research firm.

Paving products accounted for more than 80% of overall asphalt consumption in 2008. Demand for asphalt paving products will benefit from increased federal and state spending on highway and road construction. Gains will advance from a weak 2008 base, when extremely high asphalt prices led to a rollback in paving activity. As paving asphalt prices moderate, the volume of paving asphalt consumed will expand. Overall, demand for asphalt in paving uses is forecast to increase 1.7% annually to 25.5 million tons in 2013.

Demand for asphalt in roofing and other applications is forecast to rise 1.6% annually to 5.3 million tons in 2013. This is a considerable improvement from the very weak levels of 2008, reflecting a recovery in construction of single-family housing, which will benefit asphalt roofing used in steep slope applications, primarily asphalt shingles. Demand also will benefit from the growing demand for modified asphaltic membranes in low-slope roofing applications, although much of this is a replacement of other asphalt products, such as standard asphalt felts and roofing asphalts. Growth opportunities will also continue to present themselves in maintenance and repair applications in both residential and nonresidential markets.