Diesel is going to remain the “dominant” growth fuel in transportation for several decades to come, according to U.S. and international energy and transportation experts. ExxonMobil stated that diesel will surpass gasoline as the number-one global transportation fuel by 2020. Diesel will account for 70 percent of the growth in demand for all transportation fuels through the forecast period to 2040.
Although natural gas will play a greater role as a transportation fuel by 2040, it will remain only a small share of the global transportation fuel mix, at 4 percent by 2040, up from today’s 1 percent, according to ExxonMobil’s forecast.
Diesel fuel will remain the “dominant” growth fuel between now and 2035, according to the International Energy Agency. Globally, a report by the World Energy Agency suggests the possibility of only a two percent share of natural gas in the heavy-duty transport market by 2035.
The National Petroleum Council, in its 2012 report “Advancing Technology for America’s Transportation Future” for the U.S. Department of Energy stated, “Diesel engines will remain the powertrain of choice for HD (heavy-duty) vehicles for decades to come because of their power and efficiency.”
With more than 80 percent of cargo in the U.S. transported by diesel power and more than 90 percent worldwide, and diesel the predominant choice for off-road equipment, advancements in diesel technology are playing a major role in improving fuel efficiency and reducing vehicle emissions.